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20181014 China Prebaked Anode Price Market Weekly Review

20181014 This week, the mainstream price of the prebaked anode market rose, which is good for industry confidence. The fourth quarter has begun, the heating season is just around the corner, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region policy has been released, and ultra-low emissions can not be restricted, and local policies are being released. It is reported that some enterprises in Henan have passed the ultra-low acceptance test, and the Hebei region has limited production. India’s import of carbon-grade petroleum coke bans and sets quotas, which will benefit anode exports.

Start-up situation: start-up situation: Hebei area: Hebei Hongke, Hebei Quxin carbon conventional, normal production, Zhongdong plans to switch production, Xinfeng raw blocks are all for Qinghai and peak, Hebei heating season adopts "step A\B \C" limited production; enterprises in Shanxi Province started to work weakly, Danyuan roasting is in the open, do some electrodes, Guan Aluminum plans to transform the enterprise, plans to do electrode paste or roasting electrode, has not been determined;

The production of enterprises in Jiangsu area is normal, and the construction started higher than that in the second quarter. “The autumn and winter plan of the Yangtze River Delta has been released”, and production in Jiangsu will be limited during the heating season.

Hubei Province has strict inspections, Hubei Tailai carbon production has been reduced, and environmental protection equipment has been transformed. Enterprises have a small amount of stocks; Guizhou area, Chinalco Guizhou carbon plant relocated, no output; Henan, some enterprises have reduced production, Boda electric porcelain processing electrodes, roasting A small amount, Huihao environmental protection equipment renovation, August shutdown maintenance, Henan Yuhui, Zhengzhou Great Wall discontinued production, Gongyi area, Jinyu started about 50%, Zhulin Saxin external processing carbon block, some enterprises have been low acceptance. In the southwestern region, some enterprises have reduced production; in the normal production of enterprises in Shandong, the output of individual enterprises has fluctuated. The carbon blocks of the supporting anodes are upgraded by environmental protection reasons or the electrolytic cell is overhauled.

Message:
1. The notice of the implementation plan for the implementation of the peak production regulation of industrial enterprises in the heating period of 2018-2019 during the reporting period of 2018-2019 indicates that the carbon enterprises used for electrolytic aluminum are limited to 50%. The production line is stable and achieves ultra-low emission (particles, sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen oxides are not higher than 10, 35, 50 mg/m3 respectively), and the production is limited to 50% in the non-ferrous recycling industry. Production line meter.
2. The Action Plan for Comprehensive Management of Air Pollution in the Autumn and Winter of 2018-2019 in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei and the Surrounding Areas has been released.
3, "The Yangtze River Delta autumn and winter air pollution tough battle to seek comments released", involving Jiangsu, Hubei.

Cost aspect:
Petroleum coke for prebaked anode: This week, the price of petroleum coke market rose first and then stabilized. During the National Day, some refineries executed pre-holiday orders, and the inventory performance after the holiday was low. The coke price was obviously pushed up, but the downstream market procurement operation was late this week. The performance was general. At the same time, the petroleum coke index of some enterprises was changed, the market low sulfur coke resources decreased, and the medium sulfur coke resources increased, so the market price gradually stabilized.

Coal tar pitch: After the National Day holiday, the coal tar pitch market has risen sharply, and the revised asphalt offer has risen sharply, but as of this Thursday, the high level is still playing. Medium-temperature asphalt supply reduction in the short-term, downstream demand is still acceptable, low-end delisting, high breakthrough is limited.

Supply side:
According to statistics, in August 2018, the total output of China's prebaked anodes was 1,560,500 tons, of which 740,500 tons of commercial anodes and 802,000 tons of anodes were increased by 16,900 tons from August, an increase of 1.09%. The output in September increased slightly compared with the output in August. The main reason was that the output of individual anode enterprises increased, and the output of commercial anode enterprises increased and decreased, which was the same as last month.

Downstream demand:
Production cuts: Dengdian Group Aluminum Alloy Co., Ltd. and Henan Yongdeng Aluminum (Yangcheng) have slightly reduced production due to power supply problems. Gansu Zhongrui Aluminum has reduced production problems. Henan Zhongfu and Linfeng Aluminium Electric actively reduced production due to losses. Shanxi Zhaofeng Aluminium Power Environmental Inspection, shut down 65 units, involving a production capacity of 40,000 tons. Zouping Aluminum has all stopped production, involving a production capacity of 140,000 tons. Chinalco Liancheng reduced production by about 160,000 tons due to electricity price problems. Henan Shenhuo reduced production by about 110,000 tons. Xinjiang Oriental hopes to reduce production to 800,000 tons due to the indicator problem. Shaanxi Tongchuan Aluminum Industry Co., Ltd. all stopped, and the index was transferred to Meixin. Chinalco Guizhou's 150,000 tons has all been reduced. Huo Coal Tongshun Aluminum Industry is expected to implement around 2020 due to losses, intra-group replacement demand, or production cuts but not explicitly reduced production by 115,000 tons.

Resumption of production: Jiaozuo Wanfang Aluminum has basically completed the resumption of production and partial rotation of the trough. In addition to the wheel repair, Linfeng Aluminium Electric has basically resumed production. Some of the tanks in the Longquan Aluminum Industry of Yugang were overhauled, and the rest of the production was completed. The current production capacity is 600,000 tons. Henan Zhongfu resumed production and the remaining rounds were repaired. Henan Wanji Aluminum completed its resumption of production in mid-May and now has a production capacity of 570,000 tons. Henan Yongdeng Aluminum Co., Ltd. (Yangcheng) Branch completed the resumption of production.

In terms of new production: 125,000 tons of the fourth section of Guizhou Huaren Aluminum has been completed. Inner Mongolia Huayun New Materials on the 21st, the remaining 88 sets of the second plant began to start, and is currently completed. Shaanxi Meixin began commissioning equipment on September 15 and is expected to start production in November. Shanxi Chinalco China Resources 1st and 8th District has a current operating capacity of 80,000 tons and is temporarily stable. It is expected to continue production in late October. Yingkou Xintai Aluminum started production on September 5th. Yun Aluminum Haixin Aluminum Co., Ltd. put into operation 100,000 tons. Xinhengfeng Energy started production in August 2018 and plans to start production of 200,000 tons. Guizhou Xingren climbed the high, and the 122.5 million tons of electricity in the first phase was suspended again. It is expected to continue in early November. Gansu Zhongrui Aluminum Industry Phase I has completed 100,000 tons of production, and the second phase has not yet started production. The current funding problem has been reduced. Guangxi Hualei new materials four stages of 100,000 tons due to unit maintenance delayed production until October. Mengtai Aluminum is expected to complete production of 250,000 tons within the year. Inner Mongolia Chuangyuan Metal, with a current operating capacity of 90,000 tons, is now temporarily put into operation due to the price of electricity. Guangxi Suyuan's second series of 100,000 tons is expected to start production at the end of October. A series of 100,000 tons of Guangxi Debao 100 mines has been completed. A series of 100,000 tons of aluminum in the Tianlin 100 mine in Guangxi is currently slowly put into operation. Guangxi Laibin Yinhai Aluminum has a production capacity of 500,000 tons. Heqing Yixin Aluminum Co., Ltd. is expected to start production in October 2018.

Market outlook: The price of raw petroleum coke is generally raised after the holiday, the price of coal tar is pushing up, the price is increasing, the pressure of prebaked anode is increasing; the stocking of downstream electrolytic aluminum market is still going on, which is good for anode consumption, but the price of aluminum has been Low-level operation, aluminum enterprises almost all losses, enterprises may take the initiative to reduce production, the pace of new investment, resumption of production slowed down, negative anode consumption. Therefore, the short-term prebaked anode market price has limited support and is stable in the short term.

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